Analysis of recent coronavirus data for different countries and regions

Note: On March 24 the source of the data suddenly changed the format of the tables. I have updated the script to use data from a different source. If you see problems with any of the plots, please let me know.

Table of contents

Updated on Saturday 11 April 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths in the previous day

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
United States 18695 (+2059) 501821 (+34852) 27239 (+1923) 455887 (+30870)
France 13197 (+987) 124869 (+7120) 24932 (+1726) 86740 (+4407)
United Kingdom 8958 (+980) 73758 (+8681) 344 (+209) 64456 (+7492)
Spain 16081 (+634) 158273 (+5051) 55668 (+3503) 86524 (+914)
Italy 18849 (+570) 147577 (+3951) 30455 (+1985) 98273 (+1396)
Belgium 3019 (+496) 26667 (+1684) 5568 (+404) 18080 (+784)
Germany 2767 (+160) 122171 (+3936) 53913 (+1506) 65491 (+2270)
Iran 4232 (+122) 68192 (+1972) 35465 (+3156) 28495 (-1306)
Netherlands 2511 (+115) 23097 (+1335) 250 (+0) 20336 (+1220)
Brazil 1068 (+114) 19789 (+1644) 173 (+0) 18548 (+1530)
Turkey 1006 (+98) 47029 (+4747) 2423 (+281) 43600 (+4368)
Sweden 870 (+77) 9685 (+544) 381 (+176) 8434 (+291)
Canada 569 (+60) 22148 (+1383) 6013 (+702) 15566 (+621)
Switzerland 1002 (+54) 24551 (+500) 11100 (+500) 12449 (-54)
Peru 169 (+31) 5897 (+641) 1569 (+131) 4159 (+479)
Indonesia 306 (+26) 3512 (+219) 282 (+30) 2924 (+163)
Portugal 435 (+26) 15472 (+1516) 233 (+28) 14804 (+1462)
Ecuador 297 (+25) 7161 (+2196) 368 (+29) 6496 (+2142)
Ireland 287 (+24) 8089 (+1515) 25 (+0) 7777 (+1491)
Austria 319 (+24) 13555 (+311) 6064 (+824) 7172 (-537)
Romania 270 (+22) 5467 (+265) 729 (+82) 4468 (+161)
Algeria 256 (+21) 1761 (+95) 405 (+58) 1100 (+16)
India 246 (+20) 7598 (+873) 774 (+154) 6578 (+699)
Mexico 194 (+20) 3441 (+260) 633 (+0) 2614 (+240)
Russia 94 (+18) 11917 (+1786) 795 (+97) 11028 (+1671)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 10 April 2020 99323 (+7028) 1615347 (+95910) 298651 (+20350)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 11 April 2020 103679 ( +5766) 1651229 ( +65593) 319545 ( +22256)
Sun 12 April 2020 109146 ( +5467) 1711730 ( +60502) 341163 ( +21619)
Mon 13 April 2020 114270 ( +5124) 1767051 ( +55321) 361887 ( +20723)
Tue 14 April 2020 119021 ( +4752) 1817232 ( +50181) 381501 ( +19615)
Wed 15 April 2020 123385 ( +4364) 1862423 ( +45191) 399845 ( +18344)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 10 April 2020 3336 (+1) 81907 (+42) 77455 (+85)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 11 April 2020 3272 ( +0) 81121 ( +0) 76241 ( +33)
Sun 12 April 2020 3272 ( +0) 81121 ( +0) 76270 ( +29)
Mon 13 April 2020 3273 ( +0) 81121 ( +0) 76295 ( +25)
Tue 14 April 2020 3273 ( +0) 81121 ( +0) 76317 ( +22)
Wed 15 April 2020 3273 ( +0) 81121 ( +0) 76336 ( +19)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 10 April 2020 16081 (+634) 158273 (+5051) 55668 (+3503)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 11 April 2020 15940 ( +321) 157327 ( +2656) 56595 ( +2328)
Sun 12 April 2020 16207 ( +267) 159568 ( +2241) 58589 ( +1994)
Mon 13 April 2020 16426 ( +220) 161449 ( +1881) 60274 ( +1685)
Tue 14 April 2020 16607 ( +180) 163020 ( +1572) 61682 ( +1407)
Wed 15 April 2020 16753 ( +147) 164329 ( +1308) 62846 ( +1164)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 10 April 2020 18849 (+570) 147577 (+3951) 30455 (+1985)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 11 April 2020 18689 ( +303) 144217 ( +1694) 30163 ( +1114)
Sun 12 April 2020 18952 ( +264) 145695 ( +1477) 31205 ( +1042)
Mon 13 April 2020 19180 ( +228) 146979 ( +1285) 32173 ( +968)
Tue 14 April 2020 19377 ( +196) 148094 ( +1114) 33066 ( +893)
Wed 15 April 2020 19545 ( +169) 149058 ( +964) 33885 ( +819)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 10 April 2020 8958 (+980) 73758 (+8681) 344 (+209)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 11 April 2020 9537 ( +738) 75368 ( +4281) 230 ( +13)
Sun 12 April 2020 10212 ( +675) 79340 ( +3972) 244 ( +14)
Mon 13 April 2020 10815 ( +603) 82974 ( +3634) 258 ( +15)
Tue 14 April 2020 11343 ( +528) 86258 ( +3284) 274 ( +16)
Wed 15 April 2020 11797 ( +454) 89193 ( +2934) 290 ( +16)

United States

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 10 April 2020 18695 (+2059) 501821 (+34852) 27239 (+1923)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 11 April 2020 20207 ( +1757) 511053 ( +22708) 27715 ( +1138)
Sun 12 April 2020 21865 ( +1658) 531132 ( +20079) 28623 ( +908)
Mon 13 April 2020 23394 ( +1529) 548658 ( +17526) 29335 ( +713)
Tue 14 April 2020 24774 ( +1380) 563782 ( +15124) 29887 ( +552)
Wed 15 April 2020 25995 ( +1221) 576707 ( +12925) 30310 ( +422)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 10 April 2020 13197 (+987) 124869 (+7120) 24932 (+1726)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 11 April 2020 13965 ( +860) 134577 ( +7099) 30546 ( +3383)
Sun 12 April 2020 14745 ( +780) 141277 ( +6700) 34350 ( +3804)
Mon 13 April 2020 15440 ( +695) 147533 ( +6255) 38627 ( +4278)
Tue 14 April 2020 16050 ( +610) 153314 ( +5781) 43438 ( +4810)
Wed 15 April 2020 16578 ( +528) 158606 ( +5293) 48847 ( +5410)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 10 April 2020 2767 (+160) 122171 (+3936) 53913 (+1506)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 11 April 2020 2966 ( +201) 121271 ( +2313) 59289 ( +4966)
Sun 12 April 2020 3150 ( +185) 123257 ( +1986) 64089 ( +4801)
Mon 13 April 2020 3317 ( +166) 124952 ( +1695) 68644 ( +4554)
Tue 14 April 2020 3464 ( +147) 126391 ( +1440) 72888 ( +4244)
Wed 15 April 2020 3592 ( +128) 127609 ( +1218) 76777 ( +3889)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 10 April 2020 2511 (+115) 23097 (+1335) 250 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 11 April 2020 2564 ( +93) 22745 ( +578) 250 ( +0)
Sun 12 April 2020 2644 ( +79) 23253 ( +509) 250 ( +0)
Mon 13 April 2020 2711 ( +67) 23698 ( +444) 250 ( +0)
Tue 14 April 2020 2768 ( +57) 24083 ( +386) 250 ( +0)
Wed 15 April 2020 2815 ( +47) 24416 ( +333) 250 ( +0)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 10 April 2020 3019 (+496) 26667 (+1684) 5568 (+404)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 11 April 2020 3246 ( +326) 26626 ( +844) 5691 ( +269)
Sun 12 April 2020 3571 ( +326) 27366 ( +740) 5926 ( +234)
Mon 13 April 2020 3890 ( +319) 28009 ( +643) 6126 ( +201)
Tue 14 April 2020 4196 ( +306) 28563 ( +554) 6296 ( +170)
Wed 15 April 2020 4485 ( +288) 29038 ( +474) 6439 ( +142)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 10 April 2020 870 (+77) 9685 (+544) 381 (+176)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 11 April 2020 976 ( +102) 10104 ( +542) 255 ( +1)
Sun 12 April 2020 1078 ( +103) 10639 ( +535) 256 ( +1)
Mon 13 April 2020 1180 ( +102) 11164 ( +525) 256 ( +0)
Tue 14 April 2020 1278 ( +98) 11675 ( +511) 257 ( +0)
Wed 15 April 2020 1372 ( +94) 12169 ( +494) 257 ( +0)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 10 April 2020 181 (+7) 5955 (+380) 318 (+34)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 11 April 2020 208 ( +19) 6242 ( +324) 346 ( +32)
Sun 12 April 2020 226 ( +18) 6544 ( +301) 373 ( +27)
Mon 13 April 2020 243 ( +17) 6821 ( +277) 394 ( +21)
Tue 14 April 2020 258 ( +15) 7072 ( +251) 410 ( +16)
Wed 15 April 2020 272 ( +14) 7298 ( +226) 423 ( +12)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 10 April 2020 1002 (+54) 24551 (+500) 11100 (+500)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 11 April 2020 1024 ( +38) 23873 ( +258) 11637 ( +505)
Sun 12 April 2020 1057 ( +33) 24090 ( +217) 12034 ( +398)
Mon 13 April 2020 1086 ( +29) 24272 ( +182) 12342 ( +308)
Tue 14 April 2020 1111 ( +25) 24424 ( +152) 12576 ( +234)
Wed 15 April 2020 1131 ( +21) 24550 ( +126) 12753 ( +177)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 10 April 2020 4232 (+122) 68192 (+1972) 35465 (+3156)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 11 April 2020 4132 ( +61) 71337 ( +2090) 37544 ( +3052)
Sun 12 April 2020 4186 ( +55) 73315 ( +1978) 40866 ( +3322)
Mon 13 April 2020 4235 ( +48) 75179 ( +1864) 44481 ( +3616)
Tue 14 April 2020 4278 ( +43) 76927 ( +1748) 48417 ( +3936)
Wed 15 April 2020 4315 ( +38) 78560 ( +1633) 52701 ( +4284)

Comparison of different countries

Early onset: China regions

Most of the regions have almost completed the cycle and active cases are disappearing. Note that China Hubei (the original area) has a large number of confirmed cases (70000), but the other regions have very low number of cases, with number around 1200-500 or even less.

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.